Archive for September 2013

Base Metal Tips: Aluminium Updates Today

Aluminium Updates

From the low of 96.65 MCX Aluminium did a multi-month rally. The rally turned out to be a three-wave rise where the third leg almost achieved 1.618 times the equality of the first leg. The base metal hit the long-term falling trendline and suffered a near vertical fall. From there aluminium has fallen sharply. It has reached near the medium-term rising trendline. Unless the trendline (108.50) is broken on a closing basis, the commodity can go for a short-term bounce. The daily momentum indicator has given a buy signal and is in line with the expected bounce. The key levels on the upside are 113 and 115.
Posted by Niti Mathur

Commodity Trend: Bullion are On Positive Side Today

European equities are trading higher on the back of Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the pace of QE until the economic conditions stabilizes. Asian markets also traded on a positive note and US futures are also trading in the green. UK Retail sales declined by 0.9 percent in August as compared to a gain of 1.1 percent in July. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Order Expectations increased to 9-mark in the current month.

Indian Rupee appreciated by more than 2 percent as a result of Federal Reserve stance of maintaining easy monetary policy. Further, weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency. The Rupee touched an intra-day high of 61.645 today till 4:30 pm IST. Spot Gold traded on a flat note and rose on the back of weakness in the Dollar Index (DX) and upbeat global market sentiments. The yellow metal hovered around $1365/oz till 4:30 pm IST. In the Indian
markets, gold prices gained around 1.2 percent.

Spot silver traded on a flat note taking cues from upside in base metals prices. Weakness in the DX and upbeat global market sentiments also supported gains. The precious metal touched an intra-day high of $23.18/oz till 4:30 pm IST. The near month silver contract gained around 3 percent on the MCX. Base metals pack on the LME traded on a positive note due to upbeat global market sentiments. Weakness in the DX, which was due to Fed’s decision of keeping the pace of QE constant until the jobs market improve, supported gains in the base metals prices.

LME Copper prices rose around 1.8 percent taking cues from Fed’s decision of easy monetary policy and upbeat global market sentiments. Decline in inventories by 0.6 percent to 568,575 tonnes added to the upside in prices. The red metal touched an intraday high of $7345/tonne till 4:30 pm IST. The MCX Copper prices declined by more than 1 percent due to Rupee appreciation.

Posted by Niti Mathur

International Commodity Trend: COMEX Updates

Spot gold prices declined 0.8 percent today on the back of fall in SPDR Gold holdings. However, upbeat global market sentiments and weakness in the DX prevented sharp fall. In the Indian markets, gold declined by around 2 percent due to Rupee appreciation touching an intraday low of Rs.29410/10 gems till 4:30 pm IST. Spot silver prices declined by 1.7 percent, taking cues from decline in gold. However, weakness in the DX and upbeat global market sentiments cushioned sharp downfall. On the MCX, silver declined around 2.7 percent on account of Rupee appreciation and hovered around Rs.48866/kg till 4:30pm IST. 

The base metals pack traded on a mixed note today as Lawrence Summers who was expected to be aggressive with QE taper withdrew from Fed candidature, easing market concerns and mixed economic data from the Euro zone. Weakness in the DX and upbeat global market sentiments added to the upside in prices on the LME. On the MCX, base meals pack declined due to Rupee appreciation. LME Copper prices gained 0.1 percent on the withdrawal of Lawrence Summers from Fed candidature and weakness in the DX. Decline in inventories by 0.5 percent to 574,675 tonnes acted as a positive factor. However, concerns regarding QE taper before the FOMC meet this week prevented sharp gains. The near month copper contract declined by 1.6 percent due to Rupee appreciation. 

Nymex crude oil prices declined by 1.3 percent as the concerns regarding the US-Syria military war has faded owing to proposal by the US to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to submit an inventory of toxic weapons in a week. Weakness in the DX prevented sharp decline in prices. MCX crude oil prices declined by around 3 percent due to Rupee appreciation.

COMEX Trend with MCX Bullion Updates

Bullion Updates
Gold slumped heading for its biggest weekly loss in more than two months, on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will taper asset purchases and as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted further declines. Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 1 percent to $1,308.18 an ounce. Spot Gold is currently trading at $1315.60. MCX Gold Oct is currently at Rs. 29774, it is trading down by 273 points for the day. Comex Silver is currently trading at $21.78 whereas MCX Silver Dec is currently trading at Rs. 49773.

Comex Trend:
Federal Reserve Chairman meeting next week are poised to take two steps that appear inconsistent. They will probably lower their estimates for growth for this year and next for the third consecutive time. Simultaneously, they are forecast to start scaling back the $85 billion in monthly bond purchases they have been relying on to stoke the recovery. Borrowing costs increased on the mere mention at Bernanke’s last press conference, following the June policy meeting, of a tapering of bond purchases sometime this year. 
Posted by Niti Mathur

Commodity Trend, FOREX Updates Today: 5th Sep

FOREX Updates:

The dollar traded near 100 yen amid speculation signs of improvement in the U.S. economy will compel the Federal Reserve to taper its quantitative-easing program as early as this month. The greenback advanced toward a six-week high against the euro before private U.S. reports projected to show employment increased and the service industry expanded. The Bank of Japan left its unprecedented bond-buying program unchanged today at the conclusion of a two-day meeting.

Commodity Trend Today:

Gold fell a second day, extending the biggest drop in a month, on expectations for reduced stimulus in the U.S. and limited military strikes against Syria. Bullion for immediate delivery lost as much as 0.7 percent to $1,381.35 an ounce. Spot Gold is currently trading at $1388.50. MCX Gold Oct is currently at Rs 32488, it is trading down by Rs 154 points for the day. Comex Silver is currently trading at $23.36 whereas MCX Silver Dec is currently trading at Rs 54627, it is down by Rs 369. 
Posted by Niti Mathur

International Commodity Updates Today: 4th Sep

European markets are trading on a negative note today as US is moving closer towards a war with Syria. US stock futures trading on a flat note and Asian markets ended on a mixed note. Spanish Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.9 points to 50.4-mark in August as against a rise of 48.5-level in July. Italian Services PMI was at 48.8-level in August from 48.7-mark a month ago. European Retail Sales rose by 0.1 percent in July as compared to decline of 0.7 percent a month earlier.

UK’s Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.3 points to 60.5-mark in August as against a rise of 60.2-level in July. Spot gold prices declined around 0.8 percent today on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with decline in SPDR holding However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as result of weakness in the DX. In the Indian markets, gold declined by 3 percent due to appreciation in the Rupee.

Spot silver prices declined today by 1.6 percent taking cues from fall in gold prices and downside in base metals. Weak global market sentiments added to the downside. On the MCX, Appreciation in the Rupee led to decline in the prices of the white metal. Base metals on the LME are trading on a negative note on the
increased likelihood of the US Syria war and the QE tapering concerns from the Federal Reserve. However, favorable economic data from the Euro Zone and UK prevented sharp fall. In the Indian markets, Rupee appreciation led to fall in the prices on the MCX.
Posted by Niti Mathur

COMEX Gold Silver Updates and Base Metal Trend Today

COMEX Gold Silver Updates

With the Chinese economy obviously turning away a sharp downturn as reflected in the manufacturing plant information perusing at 50.1 for August, copper and silver fates got on the Comex. The overview turned out emulating the official PMI figures- -51.0 contrasted with 50.6- - from China, which additionally demonstrated extension. Silver has an incredible arrangement of modern provisions expediting a trip. We are most likely stabilising, yet its set to be a pretty frail to even recuperation.
Silver on the Comex for conveyance on December 13
was seen exchanging at $24.218/oz, an increase of $0.705 or 3.00% starting 11.10 AM IST. Copper on the Comex for conveyance on December 13 was seen exchanging at $3.307/oz, an addition of $0.068 or 2.11% starting 11.12 AM IST. Silver on India's MCX for conveyance on September 5 was seen exchanging at 53100 a kilogram a misfortune of 0.21%. Copper for conveyance on November 29 was seen exchanging at Rs.487.85 a kilogram, an increase of 0.18% starting 11.04 AM IST.
MCX Copper TipsWith the Chinese import arbitrage window closedfor the greater part of August and Shanghai copper premiums having fallen near $40/t from their crest, cathode shipments initially designated for China could be progressively occupied to LME warehouses.

Base Metal Trend:

MCX Copper November futures have quick support of 481 level and on breaking the same, has next support of 475 levels. While to the upper side, costs have resistance of 491 rupturing it and supporting above the same might take it to 496 levels. MCX Nickel September costs have an intraday uphold of 915 level while safety level is seen at 945 level.

In the interim Barlcays in a report noted that copper and aluminium could be "the most engaging shorts at current costs. We see potential for copper to drift above $7,000/t in the fleeting before arriving at new lows into the year end; and we see aluminium and copper as the most alluring shorts at current costs.
Posted by Niti Mathur

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